https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080
"the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"
For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
This is a follow-up to this market:
https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000
1,000According to this model, the probabilities should be:
Dies before AGI: 13%
Dies from AGI: ~35%
Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough: ~3%
Everything else depends on cruxes around existential risk post agi and whether one would choose to live, but my guesses are:
Dies for other reason post AGI: ~14%
Chooses not to live: ~5%
Makes it to 1000: ~30%
@Aleph I think for edge cases like cryonics or mind uploading this market should follow the original market (https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000), to keep the two markets comparable