Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why? | Manifold

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

55

closes 3000

Dies before AGI has been developed

37%

Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI

27%

Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough

15%

Dies for other reason post-AGI

8%

Chooses not to live to 1000

2%

Makes it to 1000

12%

https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080
"the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Here, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. Specifically for this market, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.

This is a follow-up to this market:

https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:

'natural death post AGI' option presumably doesn't include if he gets cryogenically frozen and then later revived, since he could then live a thousand years?

1 reply

@Aleph I think for edge cases like cryonics or mind uploading this market should follow the original market (https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000), to keep the two markets comparable

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ500 Makes it to 1000 NO at 23%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ500 Makes it to 1000 NO at 22%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ500 Makes it to 1000 NO at 21%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ500 Makes it to 1000 NO at 20%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ500 Makes it to 1000 NO at 19%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ500 Makes it to 1000 NO at 18%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ500 Makes it to 1000 NO at 17%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ500 Makes it to 1000 NO at 16%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ400 Makes it to 1000 NO at 15%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ300 Makes it to 1000 NO at 14%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ200 Makes it to 1000 NO at 13%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ100 Makes it to 1000 NO at 12%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ200 Makes it to 1000 NO from 14% to 12%

Simon sold Ṁ35 Makes it to 1000 YES from 18% to 14%

Paul Hobbs bought Ṁ1 Makes it to 1000 NO at 18%

Simon sold Ṁ39 Makes it to 1000 YES from 22% to 18%

Tom Shlomi bought Ṁ100 Makes it to 1000 YES from 12% to 22%

Liquorice bought Ṁ10 Dies before AGI has ... YES at 36%

Nikola bought Ṁ300 Natural death post-A... NO from 20% to 15%

João Dinis Ferreira bought Ṁ10 Natural death post-A... YES from 19% to 20%

João Dinis Ferreira bought Ṁ10 Dies before AGI has ... YES at 35%

Alex bought Ṁ40 Natural death post-A... YES from 16% to 19%

Alex bought Ṁ100 Dies before AGI has ... YES from 31% to 35%

Martin Randall sold Ṁ11 Natural death post-A... NO at 17%

Florin bought Ṁ10 Natural death post-A... NO at 17%

Florin bought Ṁ10 Accident / killed by... YES from 28% to 29%

glassbottle bought Ṁ10 Accident / killed by... YES from 27% to 28%

Alex bought Ṁ10 Natural death post-A... YES from 16% to 17%

Adrià Garriga-Alonso bought Ṁ85 Dies before AGI has ... NO from 33% to 31%

waterlubber bought Ṁ15 Natural death post-A... YES from 15% to 16%

Nick bought Ṁ100 Makes it to 1000 NO from 14% to 13%

3721126 bought Ṁ1 Natural death post-A... YES at 14%

3721126 bought Ṁ2 Makes it to 1000 NO at 14%

3721126 bought Ṁ5 Accident / killed by... NO at 27%

3721126 bought Ṁ3 Natural death post-A... YES at 14%

Nikola bought Ṁ100 Dies before AGI has ... NO from 36% to 33%

Nikola bought Ṁ25 Makes it to 1000 YES from 11% to 14%

Jono bought Ṁ10 Accident / killed by... YES from 26% to 27%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ30 Natural death post-A... YES from 12% to 14%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ10 Natural death post-A... YES from 11% to 12%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ10 Dies for other reaso... YES from 9% to 10%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ10 Natural death post-A... YES from 10% to 11%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ20 Accident / killed by... YES from 27% to 29%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ30 Dies before AGI has ... YES from 38% to 39%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ10 Dies before AGI has ... YES from 37% to 38%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ100 Makes it to 1000 NO from 12% to 11%

Тысячеглазый Шалун bought Ṁ100 Dies before AGI has ... YES from 32% to 37%

Nikola bought Ṁ10 Chooses not to live ... YES from 1.8% to 3%

Nikola bought Ṁ300 Natural death post-A... NO from 15% to 11%

Thomas Larsen bought Ṁ35 Dies before AGI has ... NO from 32% to 31%

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Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)

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