Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
closes 3000
Dies before AGI has been developed
Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI
Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough
Dies for other reason post-AGI
Chooses not to live to 1000
Makes it to 1000

"the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"

Here, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. Specifically for this market, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.

This is a follow-up to this market:


Get Ṁ500 play money

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Aleph avatar

'natural death post AGI' option presumably doesn't include if he gets cryogenically frozen and then later revived, since he could then live a thousand years?

1 reply
Simon74fe avatar

@Aleph I think for edge cases like cryonics or mind uploading this market should follow the original market (https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000), to keep the two markets comparable