Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
70
4.1kṀ33k3000
16%
Dies before AGI has been developed
31%
Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI
29%
Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough
7%
Dies for other reason post-AGI
4%
Chooses not to live to 1000
14%
Makes it to 1000
https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080
"the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)"
For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research.
This is a follow-up to this market:
https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will CGP Grey live to be 100 years old?
17% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
56% chance
What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?
Immortality or Death by AGI?
What will average human life look like after AGI?
Will Gary Marcus state that AGI has been achieved before 2030?
19% chance
Will King Charles live to see the creation of AGI?
15% chance