Resolves N/A if Trump doesn't win.
Resolves NO if Trump wins and somebody other than RFK assumes the position.
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@Predictor I had other questions where I got mana for correctly saying RFK was getting confirmed
https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/will-at-least-three-of-trumps-cabin
I held the RFK from 82 to 99% or so. Needed to take profits early to get into other questions.
https://manifold.markets/Calvin6b82/who-will-be-in-the-next-cabinet-of
Various questions were better deals. Voting no against at least 3 trump cabinet failing meant two out of three (Tusli,RFK, Kash) could go and I would still win. Odds were better most of the time. RFK was usually at over 90% certainty but I could get other questions in the 70s and 80s that were asking the same thing or asking similar with better terms.
@Predictor Yes. The actions around the Pfizer, Moderna and other vaccines needs investigation. Loads of valid questions that RFK will investigate. A cutting back of the bureaucracy needs to happen and HHS needs zero based budgeting justification. Like everything else. IF $1.2 trillion/year can be cut out of the budget that is half of the individual income tax ($2.4 trilion). rest is payroll, corporate tax. US pays more double per capita for health and gets less out of it than any other country. Getting rid of all that and cutting taxes means the overall economy can grow at 4-5% per year. 2% extra per GDP growth per year is a double in 36 years. 3% extra per year is double in 24 years. What we are doing needs to be reexamined and how much we pay for it is definitely double what it should be and that much extra drag is killing the economy. We just don't have a 100 year long example of some place for an AB test of not doing this. Mexico had more per capita income in 1800 than the USA. then 100 years later was 4 times richer per capita. this stayed at. 4.5-5.5 times richer until recently when it slipped to 3.5 times. A US without 30-60% corruption (up to 60 cents of every dollar spent by the government scammed) would be 4-8 times richer over 100 years.
@brianwang The problem my friend is that one dollar will come out of one corrupt pocket and into a different corrupt pocket. Like you realize that, right?
@Predictor If whack a mole is needed, then we still hit all of the scams in front of us. There is the possibility that if they follow through on blockchain recording and transparent exposure of government spending then the all people can monitor for these scams. What is being exposed is cartoonish levels of fraud, kickbacks and skimming. Also, publicly rooting this out is needed. USAID (Agency for International Development) is just CIA's other half. Ops in other countries and also in the US manipulating global media and buying off different groups. The buy offs was 60% of the money disappearing and 40% being not useful. $240M for Ethiopia food for some of the 2 million in Tigray because they were being starved by Ethiopia during a civil war which is over 3 years ago. $120 per person. But Ethiopia imports food or grows food for $15 per person. An alternative, tell Ethiopia to feed its own people or if the US does it at 8X the cost make Ethiopia pay it back. Ethiopia is now 50% richer per person than Rwanda that has no food handouts. the 8X cost had $140M of people who should not be getting paid off paid off. IF people get paid off in the world, the US tax payer should not pay. Also, the US is paying money often for both sides of a conflict. Pay Taliban to grow heroin and Taliban uses the money to fight us. Pay for our military to fight them. Pay for the drug and medical treatment for heroin addicts.
Cutting out $1 trillion/year means a smaller river of money going out to waste and corruption.
I hope one of the Democratic senators realizes that any alternative will beway worse ..... AND without redeeming qualities
@infiniteErgodicity I really don't want to come off as confrontational when I say this. But I must ask, as an honest reality check.
Supposing you think RFK is not qualified, do you think that the threat of playing dirtier later justifies complying now?
@infiniteErgodicity I'm not sure how you can predict that so confidently. Trump's nominees really have been a mix of different types, and many of them have been well qualified for their positions and sailed through confirmations with minimal opposition from Democrats. Presumably, RFK Jr is being nominated at least in part to pay a political debt. When the Matt Gaetz nomination failed, Trump didn't nominate someone far worse, he nominated someone far more qualified.
@infiniteErgodicity Jim O'Neill seems like the obvious alternative, since he's been nominated as the deputy HHS secretary.
@Blomfilter The fact that you can't even realize this post shows RFK Jr as an embarrassment is very telling.
"Are you going to just be a yes-man to Trump?"
"I'm going to do what Trump wants." (an indirect way of admitting that he is, indeed, a yes-man to Trump.)
@Gameknight "President Trump has asked me to end the chronic disease epidemic" ... I'll support that!
@Blomfilter Why yes, the chronic disease epidemic... definitely more important than, let's see:
Stopping healthcare companies from overcharging everyone to death
Preventing antivax bullsh*t from spreading instead of perpetuating the garbage
Making meaningless platitudes about "ending the chronic disease epidemic" - that's great and all, but you're not going to have any meaningful success in that, just like how literally everyone before you didn't have any meaningful success in that. It's called "chronic" for a reason, and sadly usually uncurable, like dementia or arthritis.
In other words, pretty much all of us with brains just heard RFK Jr. say "yes, I am going to do whatever Trump tells me to do. I am either incapable of realizing the task is nigh-impossible or I simply don't care that it's idiotic. I will use this to direct attention away from the GOP's rich elite funders who will continue to grift the whole American populace, including our own voterbase."
@Blomfilter the issue is that RFK's more concrete beliefs about health, as well as trump's and the republican party at large, contradict the M.O. he promotes here.
@No_uh That too, yes. I just focused on the specific interview. But vaccines prevent disease and sometimes chronic disease, and his antivax beliefs contradict literally any broader health goal.
@jb456 I don't really understand that... While I take her at her word as someone who grew up with him, some of the "evidence" she used is just bad:
1. It's common to blend baby mice/chickens to feed young or injured hawks.
2.The Kennedy family has had drug problems for generations, and RFK jr. was addicted to heroin - is she blaming him for that, or saying he encouraged other members of the family to partake?
@AlexanderKlos I think the latter, that he encouraged other members of the family to partake. It's documented in a couple of places that when RFK Jr. was using, he supposedly encouraged a lot of people close to him to use too, sometimes with tragic results. Based on context I would think that Caroline Kennedy is primarily referring to David, RFK Jr.'s brother who died of a cocaine overdose. He is also reported to have encouraged Lem Billings, a close family friend to take up heavy drug use and drinking.
@AlexanderKlos On the other point, I don't know much about falconry, but I think the claim she was making is not so much about whether it was usual or unusual, but that he took a perverse joy in it.