If Trump wins, will Elon, Tulsi, Vivek and RFK all get positions in the federal government by the end of 2025?
26
100Ṁ14452026
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
If Trump wins the election, will Vivek Ramaswamy be given a government position (cabinet or otherwise) by EOY 2025?
11% chance
If Trump wins the election, will he appoint Elon Musk to a federal government position by the end of 2025?
25% chance
Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2026?
92% chance
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed to any position by Trump by the end of 2026?
10% chance
If Trump wins will Laura Loomer be given a position in the White House or federal government by the end of 2025?
6% chance
If Trump wins, who will be the White House’s important AI policy officials in 2025?
Will any of Donald Trump's children be elected to Congress, Vice President, or President of the US by 2050?
44% chance