Summary
This market resolves based on the "Conservative Countdown to AGI" maintained by Dr. Alan D. Thompson
Current Status: 97% (Updated Feb 2026).
YES: The "Current Progress" meter on the official countdown page reaches 100% at any point on or before July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM PT.
NO: The countdown remains at or below 99% by the start of August 2026.
Source: The primary source is the official website. If Dr. Thompson moves the needle to 100% or officially declares "AGI Achieved" per his criteria (Median Human performance + Physical Embodiment), the market resolves YES.
Countdown link: https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/
1,000Did he title his countdown as a joke?
>As national coordinator for Australian Mensa’s gifted families, he designed and developed several high-profile information initiatives
l m a o
>On The Joe Rogan Experience, he is described as a ‘hyper-optimist’.
come on
What a ridiculous little man
I do fully believe this huckster will declare "AGI achieved!!!!" before it makes any semblance of sense