Is H5N1 spreading in non-dairy cattle?
Is H5N1 spreading in non-dairy cattle?
11
200Ṁ1551May 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
8%
Before January 1st, 2025
Resolved
NOBefore April 1st, 2024
Resolved
NOBefore July 1st, 2024
Resolved
NOBefore October 1st, 2024
Will credible future reports indicate that H5N1 was spreading in non-dairy cattle at the following dates?
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Timing: Each target date will be resolved 4 months after the date.
Resolution Criteria: Due to the absence of beef cattle samples, resolutions will be NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ50 NO6mo
This is unserious research on my part, but it looks like all cases are restricted to dairy cows so far.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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