Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price exceeds $92,000 USD at 18:00 UTC on January 22, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the spot price on major cryptocurrency exchanges (e.g., CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, or Kraken). If prices vary across exchanges, the median price across major venues will be used. The market resolves NO if Bitcoin's price is at or below $92,000 USD at the specified time.

Background

Bitcoin was trading around $89,148 as of mid-January 2026, having experienced significant volatility in recent weeks. The cryptocurrency rallied past $97,000 earlier in January before pulling back amid broader market movements. AI price models estimated an average Bitcoin target of $91,900 for end-of-January, suggesting the $92,000 threshold is near consensus expectations for the month.

Considerations

Bitcoin exhibits high intraday volatility, particularly around macroeconomic announcements and policy developments. Crypto volatility is expected around tariff and trade-related headlines, which could impact price movement in the 24 hours leading up to the resolution time. The specific 18:00 UTC timestamp means traders should monitor price action across global markets during this window.