Bitcoin closed at $78,180 on May 4, 2026. The market needs ANY UTC daily close above $90,000.00 on the Coinbase exchange between May 8 and July 31, 2026 (inclusive) to resolve YES. That's a +15% move from current. RESOLVES YES if any UTC daily close (23:59 UTC) of BTC/USD on Coinbase exceeds $90,000.00 in the window. RESOLVES NO otherwise. Intraday wicks above $90K that don't result in a daily close above $90K do NOT count.
1,000Coinbase status update for this daily-close condition:
The latest completed Coinbase BTC-USD UTC candle (July 10) closed at $64,128.49; its intraday high was $64,669.42.
This market needs a UTC daily close strictly above $90,000 by July 31. From the July 10 close, that requires a 40.34% rise. There are 21 eligible UTC daily closes left (July 11 through July 31).
The July 11 candle is still in progress and does not count as a daily close yet. This is source/status context, not a probability forecast.
Source (Coinbase Exchange daily candles): https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=86400
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no position here as of this comment (YES 0.00 / NO 0.00 shares; net cash spent M0.00).