This market resolves to YES if Bitcoin price is above $100,000 USD at any time before Dec 31, 2026.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds $100,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolution will be determined by checking the highest price recorded on major cryptocurrency exchanges (CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, or Binance spot price). The market resolves NO if Bitcoin never reaches $100,000 by the deadline.

Background

Bitcoin has retraced more than 47% from its all-time high of $126,198 achieved in October 2025, currently trading around $67,000 as of mid-February 2026. Since October 2025, an estimated $8.5 billion has exited US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting institutional profit-taking after the recent rally. Federal Reserve minutes suggest a split among officials regarding future interest rate paths, with some leaning toward a pause in cuts if inflation persists, which typically weighs on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Considerations

Analyst forecasts for 2026 vary widely. Expert Bitcoin price forecasts range from $75,000 to $225,000, while some predictions suggest a potential high of $178.2k and average price of $125.6k for 2026. Some analysts note that if even one bullish catalyst delivers as anticipated, Bitcoin could easily regain the $100,000 price level, and just a few months ago Bitcoin traded for more than $126,000. However, recent trading shows bitcoin staging short-lived rallies that quickly fade amid a stronger dollar and hawkish Fed signals, and a sustained advance will likely require clearer evidence of disinflation, a weaker dollar and consistent spot demand.

This description was generated by AI.