Will the people who killed the 3 hostages go to prison?
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310
Jun 1
3%
chance

Context: 3 Hostages (Yotam Haim, Alon Shimriz, and Samer Talalka) were killed by soldiers in Gaza yesterday. They were unarmed and they carried white cloth. One of them shouted "Save us!" In Hebrew and was also shot. The 3 were in an area that had been emptied of civilians beforehand and thr soldiers said they thought they felt threatened.

Resolves YES if anyone goes to prison for killing any of the 3 hostages, for any amount of time. Resolves NO if the investigation closes, if a trial never happens, or if the trial ends without a prison sentence. End date will be extended until conclusion.

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I will be extremely annoyed if this resolves NO. The soldiers shot Yotam 15 minutes after the rest of the hostages, after he hid inside a building, talked with the forces, and the commander in place managed to convince him to get out. It's just an execution, that's what it is.

predicts NO

@Shump I agree, it is horrible, but I still don’t think anyone will go to prison for this… don even think there will be a trail, especially after the family of Yotam said they don’t blame anyone…

predicts NO

The investigation is over, IDF and the families said they won’t take charges against the shooters, IDF will implement the conclusions to make sure this won’t happen again.

I think this means it should be resolved as a NO.

@BP17b6 Source?

predicts NO

@Shump IDF spokesman speech from last night.

@BP17b6 Link? Hebrew is fine

predicts NO

@Shump

Well, it seams that the radio news added the quote “לא ינקטו צעדים משמעתיים״ based on I don’t know.

But here is the official link, no indication to future charge… don’t think they will officially say they won’t do a trial… in that case, how much time should pass to resolve it as a no?

https://idfanc.activetrail.biz/ANC28122023NEFWOIUBFUE

@BP17b6 Enough to make it clear that it's not going to happen. I do expect some clear statement to happen, but I guess after several months of no news I will be able to close this.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I bet on yes. It's comparatively rare but IDF military courts have handed out prison sentences for similar before.

@astroblob Don't forget that it's much easier to get into military prison than regular prison too. I almost went to military prison, lol.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Something something “in the fog of war”. I think this will be excused

@mattyb Normally for sure, but the public outcry seems strong.

predicts NO

@Shump I do think this may lead to military changes going forward. I don’t think the soldiers will be jailed.

@Shump re public outcry - the way I see it, people in Israel really don't like criticizing common soldiers (those who do are considered extreme left-wing). So I think public outcry won't name those specific soldiers, and will focus on more higher-ups, which will also dilute the responsibility and decrese chances of anyone going to prison.

If the soldiers violated rules of engagement they might be sentenced for military prison, but on a gut feeling it feels like 15% at most.

@YotamFederman I'm also surprised but so far this seems to be on track to be an actual investigation rather than a usual cover up. The head of the military accepted responsibility, the IDF said very clearly that this is against the rules of engagement, and I think they actually started a criminal investigation.

predicts NO

@Shump

What you say is true, but in the end, after taking responsibility for this tragedy, Herzi Halevi said we should embrace the soldiers and conclude actions for the future.

I highly doubt anyone will be in prison for this.