Will the Doomsday Clock be set to 80 seconds to midnight on the 2025 update?
Will the Doomsday Clock be set to 80 seconds to midnight on the 2025 update?
43
210Ṁ6325resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
YES if it becomes exactly 80 seconds, otherwise NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ137 | |
| 2 | Ṁ62 | |
| 3 | Ṁ54 | |
| 4 | Ṁ41 | |
| 5 | Ṁ34 |
Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the AI Safety Clock reach 22 minutes to midnight by April 2025?
45% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 seconds to midnight by 2030?
52% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 40 seconds to midnight by 2028?
22% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock be 60s (or less) to midnight by end of January 2026
58% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?
29% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?
36% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 20 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?
24% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 10 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?
35% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 30 seconds to midnight by 2029?
42% chance
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?
41% chance