Will Netanyahu's coalition collapse by the end of 2024?
12
56
300
2025
68%
chance

Resolves YES if at any point in time in 2024, the coalition led by Netanyahu loses its majority in the Knesset. Not for passing a specific law, but the majority they need to keep things running.

This will almost certainly force early elections, but those will likely happen months later. In the meantime, Netanyahu would stay as prime minster.

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bought Ṁ30 YES

If there is an ICC warrant it's bye-bye Bibi

@RemNi Why?

@nathanwei Israel not having allies is a threat to its security. Keeping Netanyahu in power in that situation would be a diplomatic disaster.

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We have a bunch of questions about Netanyahu's political survival, but they are complicated by the fact that the most likely way for him to stop being prime minister is through elections, which take months. I'd like to know if the government collapses regardless of the election timeline or whether Netahyahu gets reelected.