The Iowa Selzer Poll will prove to be accurate | Manifold

The Iowa Selzer Poll will prove to be accurate

Basic

21

Ṁ812

Nov 6

3%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Criterion: Selzer poll is accurate to within 3% for Trump and Harris.

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#🇺🇸 US Politics

#Democratic Party

#Derivative Markets

#FiveThirtyEight

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@ShreyasArathri resolves no

so if trump wins by 46.9 to 44.1%, that counts?

What exactly is the winning condition here? Does Harris have to get exactly 47%, Trump 44%, RFK 3% and "someone else "1%???

Sorry, I should have detailed that the Selzer poll is accurate within 3% for the Democrat and Republican candidates.

@ShreyasArathrigqgN I think you put 0.3% in the description.

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