For context:

I spent most of Season 1 in the top 5 of my Platinum leauge until I panicked in the Will 1000 loot boxes be sold before June 1st? market flipping a modest YES holding into an overextended NO holding.

Generally I give myself a 50% chance if I dont throw a lot of mana down a hole. Maybe a 10% chance that I do throw a lot of mana down a hole with a 5% chance that I make it anyways if I do.