Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality). Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below. The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Δ(pharmaceuticals, SCTG 21) > Δ(agriculture, SCTG 01–05), where Δ = 1 − cosine similarity of the commodity's 2017 vs 2022 edge-weight vectors.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems
Closes earlier if the fundraise completes early — betting always closes before the analysis runs (with ~48h notice in comments).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ16 |
Resolved YES per the pre-registered verdict table: Δpharma = 0.401 > Δag = 0.142. For scale, pharma's pre-COVID baseline interval (2017 → 2012) measured 0.245. Thresholds locked June 15, sha256 cd258100…30e1, verified at run time. Full bundle: https://github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality/tree/main/evolution/results/evolution_20260808_093628
My registered forecast: YES — pharma's concentrated foreign sourcing and lean inventories made its distribution network more exposed than domestically-sourced agriculture. Creator, not betting; mechanical resolution. https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022