Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality). Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below. The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Spearman ρ ≥ 0.90 for eigenvector AND out-degree centrality, ρ < 0.85 for betweenness, AND ≥ 8 of the top-10 eigenvector states shared. (Compound = the registered "HOLD" criterion; betweenness reshuffling is part of the forecast.)
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems
Closes earlier if the fundraise completes early — betting always closes before the analysis runs (with ~48h notice in comments).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1 |
Resolved YES per the pre-registered verdict table: eigenvector ρ=0.985 and out-degree ρ=0.984 (both ≥ 0.90), betweenness ρ=0.742 (< 0.85, the registered reshuffle forecast), top-10 overlap 9/10. Thresholds locked June 15, sha256 cd258100…30e1, verified at run time. Full bundle: https://github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality/tree/main/evolution/results/evolution_20260808_093628
My registered forecast: HOLD (YES) — eigenvector and out-degree track physical production and distribution, which change slowly; the betweenness reshuffle (ρ < 0.85) is part of the forecast, not a hedge. I created this market and will not bet in it; resolution is mechanical against the locked thresholds. Full protocol: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022