Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374). Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality). Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below. The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems
Closes earlier if the fundraise completes early — betting always closes before the analysis runs (with ~48h notice in comments).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ8 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
Resolved YES per the pre-registered verdict table: backbone Jaccard = 0.809 against the registered 0.80 threshold. Closest call of the three. Thresholds locked June 15, sha256 cd258100…30e1, verified at run time. Full bundle: https://github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality/tree/main/evolution/results/evolution_20260808_093628
My registered forecast: HOLD (YES) — the backbone corridors reflect geographic and infrastructural fundamentals. If this breaks, COVID-era disruption reached the trunk routes themselves, which would be the bigger finding. Creator, not betting; mechanical resolution. https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022