Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?
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12
Ṁ313
2028
61%
chance

From the survey paper "The future of clinical trials and drug development: 2050":

“Who will run pharma? Google, Amazon, Apple – the big tech companies.”

The opinion was that, try as they might, Blue-chip pharmaceutical companies and mega contract research organization (CRO) conglomerates have already lost the data initiative. It was clear from delegate feedback that we are already seeing technology companies come to the fore as pharma’s trillion dollar spend attracts predators like Google, IBM and Microsoft.

...

The consensus was that, by 2050, if you are working in clinical trials and you are not the janitor, then you are a data scientist, probably working at Google.

This market would resolve as 'yes' if any of the following is true:

  • these companies have a combined $1 billion dollars or more investments in their own pharma efforts, starting from market opening

  • these companies have a combined $1 billion or more in pharma acquisitions, starting from market opening

  • these companies have IP ownership of at least 10 drugs currently in human trials or approved

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This doesn't directly match any of the resolution criterias, but it seems like good progress.

Do other Alphabet companies count as Google?

@m2 Hello, sorry I missed your comment.

Reading the quote above, it definitely seems in the spirit of the question to consider other Alphabet as part of "Google's own pharma effort".

If anyone disagrees, speak now or forever hold your peace.

predicts NO

Google released a multimodal medical LLM a few days ago. While this is not focused on pharmaceutical discovery at all, it shows some interest in the sector.

https://sites.research.google/med-palm/