Will Ireland be invaded by the UK before 2030 in the event of a Sinn Fein Taoiseach in next elections
33
1kṀ46452030
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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N/a if no Sinn Fein Taoiseach
Yes if afterwards and before 2030 UK (or a successor state) launches a military campaign to occupy territory on the island of Ireland not currently within Northern Ireland.
See this article for an argument that it may happen https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2022/0511/1297303-ireland-britain-sinn-fein-conservatives-imperialism/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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