This market resolves YES if my sex market is shown on the LO/Manifest news tab by 5:30 PM on Friday, June 7th and continues to be shown (with allowances for site downtime and brief periods) for 24 hours after that time.
I may bet on this market.
It is possible for both my gripes below to be resolved and for this market to resolve NO.
Context:
I created a market recently about how many people I'll have sex with during LO/Manifest: https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
In contrast to my experience last year, where it felt like every third person I talked to commented on it, very few people brought it up. There are many possible reasons for this, I assumed that maybe the LessWrong crowd didn't care as much, or people thought it was tacky and didn't have much positive to say. However it has become clear to me that nobody has seen the market, because Manifold makes it very hard to stumble upon. Despite having a large liquidity pool and a question which is obviously relevant and interesting to the people attending manifest, this market does not show in the LO/Manifest tab on the main page. When I asked the relevant people about this, rather than the wonderful frank, straightforward communication I'm used to I got stilted, awkward answers. I was redirected to someone else multiple times.
I posit that something has happened to manifold that maybe they don't even realize because it happened so slowly. They transitioned from wanting to be sex-positive, to wanting to appear sex-positive while also presenting a sterile facade to the wider public.
I was told manifold "wanted to keep it below a certain rating", but this is ridiculous. The market is not pornographic. It has the description necessary to describe its resolution conditions. It has a picture of my body in casual clothes with a sliver of stomach showing.
I encourage manifold to face this directly: either appear and be sex-positive, showing markets about sex on equal footing to other markets, or don't be sex-positive and put new rules in place to disallow these markets, and phase out the existing markets and the Sex & Love tag.
1,000
1.00There’s discussion on the below market relevant to Manifold’s showcasing/incentivizing “fun” markets about Manifest. Your market has popped up in my automated suggestions several times, FWIW — I’m not going but maybe Manifold thinks I like to sext.
What’s your sense, are you likely to have sex with more or fewer people now? Have you considered a sexy performance at this karaoke? Could be interesting meta!
I found it in the main feed on May 24. Was the market stifled after that date, per chance?
Despite having a large liquidity pool and a question which is obviously relevant and interesting to the people attending manifest, this market does not show in the LO/Manifest tab on the main page.
The description clarifies that the stifling in question is Joshua's choice not to include it in the Manifest dashboard (not anything about the main page). Don't want people to be betting while misunderstanding the question.
@Ziddletwix Ah, thanks for pointing that out to me. My brain wasn't doing the thinky thing too well a minute ago, and it probably still isn't.
@CrissmanLoomis AFAIK, the market can be found in all the usual ways (I don't think Manifold has different systems for NSFW or etc). this question is just about whether Joshua chooses to feature it in his LO/Manifest dashboard. (whether that is best described as sex negative or not YMMV, but that's my understanding of resolution)
I'm not sure how it's "sex-negative" not to include the market in the dashboard - or am I taking it more seriously/literally than you mean it?
Choose a tier to determine the cost of creating your question. Higher tiers offer more rewards, which will attract more bettors!
Unless of course, the market is about sex, in which case it will be silently demoted until we are confronted about it. I expect this behavior from twitter or youtube, but not manifold 😢