Rationalussy 2: How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
resolved Jun 11

I thought it might be tacky to run basically the exact same market again, but then I did it anyways.

I've bought my plane ticket, manifest+summercamp+lessonline ticket, and hotel is reserved. Barring calamity, I will be going to manifest & lessonline 2024, and I'm hoping to make some friends. Possibly some with benefits.

I don't wanna write a bunch of legalese. In general I will resolve in the spirit of the market.

You can see the previous market here: https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/will-i-have-sex-with-someone-atarou

Differences from the previous market:
- This applies to any sex while I'm in the San Francisco area for this trip (it doesn't need to be otherwise connected to manifest/lessonline) so long as I don't pay for it.

  • There's multiple options this time :D

Things you should know:

  • You must read the previous market for full details

  • This market doubles as a personal ad. DMs open ;) Best place to reach me is on discord shelvacu or signal private messager shelvacu.66

  • This applies to anyone of any gender.

  • I have no plans to record a video. I may or may not provide details about who/when, depending on how I and the other party(ies) feel about it. Unfortunately you'll just have to trust me on this one.

  • Whoever I have sex with will obviously have insider information and may trade on that information for profit.

  • Similarly if I'm in an orgy, everyone at the orgy will have insider information.

  • Other than the above, I will do my best not to leak information about this market, and will glomar-ing throughout my trip.

  • "So long as I don't pay for it" is meant to exclude escorts and similar. This does not exclude buying someone a fancy dinner or other similar things.

  • I will not trade on this market, or have others trade for me/on my behalf. I may add liquidity/subsidies

  • I don't at the time of writing know a specific person who would likely be willing and is going to be in SF at the time.

  • I'm planning to be there from May 31 to Jun 10. I'm not comitting to those dates (ie I won't N/A if that changes) but I will try to keep this market up-to-date and leave a comment if something changes.

  • This market will resolve sometime after I get on the plane and I'm back home in Seattle.

  • I hereby give you permission to trade however you want! If you think I look unattractive as hell and I've got no chance in hell, buy a bunch of no. I won't be offended, that's what I signed up for by making this market.

  • I'm also open to most comments, but: if the entire substance of your comment is that I'm fat, or look like a pedo (at least I think that's what this comment was implying), or similar, your comment will be hidden and reported.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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I'm open to most comments, but: if the entire substance of your comment is that I'm fat, or look like a pedo, or similar, your comment will be hidden and reported.

(reposting in the comments so it's hopefully more visible)

Awww, @Tumbles! ❤

This feels like a lame victory. My real hope was to pair up with other attendees, but instead it was just two guys from grindr.

I remembered Joshua's advice to use grindr. The only reason I didn't use it last was just cause, I dunno, grindr has weird vibes. But reviewing it again this time I decided I might as well try it. But instead of matching with other attendees like I might've hoped, I just matched with rando horny guys in Berkley. But then some of them were cute so I figured why not and then some of them responded and then we met up etc etc...

@Shelvacu Oh and usually when I have "weird vibes" about something, once I try/experience it I think "nah that was silly/irrational, it isn't that weird".

But Grindr? It's even weirder than I thought. (measurement taken from personal experience and also reading the subreddit) There's a name field that virtually nobody puts their actual name into. Somehow, despite trying to be prepared to not be surprised that fetishes exist, I was surprised that fetishes exist. Plenty of people are still in the closet (in SF!) and so a bunch of profiles don't include face pictures, just neck to waist (nude photos aren't allowed on the profile). Some profiles don't have any public pictures at all, and they may or may not send pictures privately. The normal routine is talk like you're soulbonded lovers at first sight, bang, and then never contact eachother again (unless you match again). The timescales are very short. You only match while you have the app open and a short time after (I think? not sure exact details) and the expectation is that a meeting is going to be arranged that day. I suspect I'd have a hard time scheduling even a day out.

@Shelvacu Shelvacu's stream of conciousness, episode 3:

I feel like calling it "lame" is underselling it. I had fun, don't get me wrong. But I could've used Grindr at home in Seattle and I suspect I would've had roughly the same experience

@Shelvacu Oh, but despite the weirdness everyone was nice, like I never felt unsafe (despite at one point being driven around in a strangers car and parking in the corner of a gas station parking lot, for example). Perhaps I just got lucky.

I haven't actually rescheduled my flight yet, but I'm thinking of leaving monday or tuesday rather than friday

@Shelvacu Flight is rescheduled for monday night

bought Ṁ50 1 YES

This guy fucks, 100%

Are you the Ṁana Boy or a sPice Man? We need it to be the Price Points market!!!

What kind of pants are you going to wear?

@NivlacM My cozy sweatpants as always

bought Ṁ5 1 YES

@Shelvacu I was gonna bet 10+ if you'd found some comfy chinos

@NivlacM I have it on good authority from a number of sources that grey sweatpants at least are extremely rizz enhancing

A couple questions:

  • Do you have a date-me-doc (e.g. Date Me Directory)?

  • Are you seeking advice from others on increasing chances?


  • no, unless you count https://manifold.love/Shelvacu

  • Maybe. I got a lot of not-useful advice last time (and no useful advice) so I'm going to be skeptical but I'm still willing to listen. Particularly if you have a large NO position on 0 :3

@Shelvacu Being able to tell when advice is either not applicable to your situation or your ground rules is a very useful skill.

Added an updated picture. Traders, update accordingly.

@Shelvacu are you male/female? I can't tell from your pp and it's relevant to my forecast.


> I can't tell from your pp


@Shelvacu bettors out here engaging in psychological warfare against the creator to win the market

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