You going to resolve it? 😅

@Crazytieguy Tim won, right? I can mod-resolve, although I have a decent amount on him so it might be more appropriate for someone else to.

@NcyRocks aenews did

@Elliot_dev Too much voter fraud with aenews, sorry

@ian Then perhaps this should resolve n/a. voter fraud isn't here nor is it in the rules

@Elliot_dev how do I dispute a bad resolution??

@Elliot_dev Votes were from only singers, nobody who voted for him was there except you

@ian got it but that part wasn't in the rules so this is a fraudulent market.

@Elliot_dev Read the description

@ian I did read it

@ian It just says that you can only vote on singers, aenews did sing

@Elliot_dev They clarified that only the singers could vote, so your vote wasn't counted even though you were there. It's not all Manifest participants.

https://manifold.markets/ian/who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp-en6nwx7dhd?r=TmN5Um9ja3M

Resolution poll

Note to self: check that your song is within your vocal range before choosing it based on a name gimmick 😅

How will the competition work? Will each competitor chose one song to perform?

@Crazytieguy yes! one song per contestant that's on youtube. Just type the song name and karaoke afterwards on youtube to see if it's on there

I like this submission

Hm this is not going to work, must be 1 submission per answer

@ian I edited it to say Molly, feel free to change to Quinn and/or add another answer

Very good use of a Plus market. It's certainly necessary to have more liquidity for bets on this important outcome.

If Yud can learn social skills (good enough to do well on the bankless podcast) then he can pick up anything.

Someone with good karaoke genes might show up, or Yud might not learn karaoke in time, which is why this should be 7% instead of 5%.

(for the record, this is a joke and I actually put it below 5%)

Guess I gotta go next year.

I love karaoke, there should be more joy and fun in the world, but what’s the logic behind making this a Prize Market? Wasn’t the whole idea of that to broaden the userbase? By raising the overall utility of markets? Not meant as a gripe — I’m seriously confused.

@ClubmasterTransparent I predict this will provide utility to the attendees of Manifest, who will hopefully also be able to convert their prize points into cash at the conference. We also have the prop bets on manifest as a prize point market so that all the attendees can get a taste for how manifold will be when we have full approval for prize point cash outs.

@ian Agree it will appeal to people going to Manifest! But if Manifold is ever going to be usefully accurate on more than 2-3 topics, it’s gotta appeal to a lot more users than the EA community plus Destiny fans plus @strutheo. There’s an unresolved conflict between being a fun sticky social site and casting a wide net for experts.

@ClubmasterTransparent We're currently trying to manage our risk of not being able to offer cash prizes, so we can't enable too many of them/markets that resolve too far in the future. Ideally we'll have many more prize markets in the future, on all sorts of widely appealing topics. But in order to market our pivot during manifest, we need prize markets that resolve this weekend.

@ian Thanks, of course you know your investor and user universe better than I do. But I’m not particularly special as far as MBA skills go. If I think there’s an inherent, possibly unresolvable conflict between “pivot will make this thing generate more wealth than it uses, by attracting more and better users” and “but we want to preserve our specialness as a Community and socials work by stickiness and we’re a social” — it’s extremely reasonable to infer some number of relevant people share my view.

Why not just collect a pot of cash from the potential investor karaoke singers — make them pay extra if they want to sing “Goodbye Earl” — and demonstrate the potential of Manifold with some market of more general interest that also resolves at the optimal time for you? It’s not like Manifest Karaoke Night is the only thing happening on that day.

@ClubmasterTransparent Hah I can’t say I understand your view, yet. Why is this a bad market? I think we can have both this market and some other market of general interest. We’re all ears for good markets that resolve soon!