Will I be alive on April 30, 2038?
17
1kṀ12252038
89%
chance
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6H
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It is my birthday tomorrow. I'm turning 23. I don't know if I'll survive the next 15.
I'm physically healthy. I dont drink, I don't drive, I won't commit suicide. The base rates for my death in actuarial tables end up around 2085.
But given existential risks from transformative AGI, there is a >1% chance that everybody dies.
So please bet on this market about p(doom) on short timelines!
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