Will the NYC subway hit 75% of its prepandemic peak ridership levels by end of December 2023?
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resolved Jan 6
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NO

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predicted NO

@ShakedKoplewitz What do you mean by "hit"? Does it have to be 75% at some point in time in 2023, or 75% at the end of the year?

bought แน€15 of YES

The surge in subway traffic at key Manhattan stations suggest a noteworthy comeback of workers to the city since the pandemic struck. In this connection, note a 9% jump (over the same period last year) observed in a recent Partnership for New York City poll on return-to-work patterns since August 23 through September 15th, 2022 (Partnership). This indicates that white-collar workers may return to desks in Favour of businesses.


Also, the MTAโ€™s station by station ridership statistic for 2005 over 2004 showed significant year on year increases, particularly in lower Manhattan and midtown office district. Amazingly, some stations have even exceeded their pre-pandemic figures. Such as there was an increase of 24% in the ridership at the World Trade Center/Cortlandt stop more than the figures recorded on the same day last year and pre-pandemic statistics.
Although, generally, the total number of passengers in the subway system is only about 53%โ€“60% of what it had been before the pandemic, the local growths indicate that things are already improving somewhat. Nevertheless, we should also consider changing working patterns as well as any future adjustments in economics and what the public might encounter in regard to healthcare.

@AsadHeera2633

Historical data and references to the New York City poll to return to work and the tendencies for white-collar workers to return to the city are interesting. However, referring to the "MTA's station-by-station ridership statistic for 2005 over 2004" might be outdated data and raise questions about the relevance of the analysis (Heera, 2023). Nonetheless, I would not have made the same bet.ย A potential payout of +154.5 % for betting YES might not be feasible. Steadier, more incremental ridership growth in the 10-15% range year-over-year seems more plausible through the end of 2023, justifying a conservative bet for NO, with a good potential payout of +59%.

It would be interesting to consider that while the Partnership for New York City survey showed a 9% increase in return-to-office patterns from August to September 2022, subway ridership overall is still only around 60% of pre-pandemic levels as of October 2022, according to MTA data (Metropolitan Transportation Authority, 2022). Additionally, significant headwinds remain, including continued remote and hybrid work arrangements adopted during the pandemic, as well as potential economic downturns affecting office jobs. Given these factors, hitting the 75% threshold by December 2023 seems like a stretch goal.

predicted YES

@ShakedKoplewitz Are we using the graph @ZacharyKlein Sent below?

bought แน€10 of YES
predicted YES

Looking at the graph, this should resolve YES. I think that it has already gone around 75% if you look a bit earlier in the year