Will Elon Musk be the richest man in the world in the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 1

Resolves as of 2023.12.31.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

I think Elon Musk will remain at the top of the hill at the end of 2023. It is very unlikely that someone surpassess him due to Elon's trajectory and investments will keep him first.

predicted YES

@EmmanuelGomez are you some kind of retard, or is this GPT3.5 talking?

predicted YES

@EmmanuelGomez Umm.

1 Elon Musk $258.3 B

2 Bernard Arnault & family $187.0 B

3 Jeff Bezos $148.2 B

Elon $71bn ahead per source to be used


Elon would have to lose 25% of his wealth not to be richest. That would normally take some time but who knows with Elon. Q3 tesla deliveries saw a drop which I saw as one of the risk but the market doesn't seem to mind. If it is a temporary dip for M3 Highland refresh that probably isn't a big issue for market value. There are possible other risks like: Cybertruck delay or worse a bad reception for it and delays or smaller potential market for model 2.

Still 25% is quite a cushion.

predicted YES

@AlQuinn It's a new wave of bots making rambling comments like this.

predicted YES

@Mqrius Okay people, chill out 😂 . This is part of an assignment, but I totally misread the question. Now corrected, thanks anyway for the insults lol.

@EmmanuelGomez What's the assignment? Is there a teacher out there having students write comments on Manifold to try and move markets or something? Annoying, but also very cool if so

predicted YES

@EmmanuelGomez didn't intend an insult, sorry. We've just seen a lot of new accounts make a single bet with a long explanation that didn't look all natural. We've had chatgpt bots on here before so this seemed like a similar thing! Thanks for clarifying

predicted YES

@Frogswap I'm guessing it's not to try and move markets, but just an assignment to make a well-reasoned prediction including a comment where you support your predictions.

That would explain why the comments look like small essays, with a structure of [reasons]>[conclusion], rather than our own comments which are more like a conversation. They're writing to be read by the teacher/professor, not by everyone else.

@Mqrius That would be a shame. Writing to move a market is probably a very good way to improve persuasive writing skills. If you're not doing that, you may as well submit your comment directly to the grader. I could totally see the rubric including traditional persuasive essay requirements with this still being the intent.

predicted YES

@Mqrius the remaining odd thing is the original comment seemed to have the GPT3.5 history cutoff problem where it thought based on end of training data that Bezos was richest in the world. I'm still fairly certain GPT or some other LLM is being employed in making some of these comments.

@AlQuinn Musk was the richest person in the world as of Jan 2021, and the original GPT cutoff was Sep 2021, so I'm not sure it wouldn't know. But in general (and with no accusations of academic dishonesty here specifically) you should update toward not finding it odd that an LLM was used for an assignment 😉

predicted YES

@Frogswap thanks, forgot the exact cutoff for 3.5 and when Musk > Bezos.

predicted YES

Elon musk owns about 40% stakes in SpaceX a fast growing American spacecraft manufacturer; he also owns 20% in Tesla a monopoly multinational company specialized in constructing electric vehicles and also in twitter, an American social media company. He is currently in competition with Bernard Arnault, owner of LVMH where his is placed first in the ranking of the richest people in the world followed by Elon Musk in the second place. By the end of 2023, I think Musk will remain ranked second in the ranking of the richest man in the world, but in the coming few years, he will sit on the throne of the richest man for a long time.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Elon Musk owns stakes in large, exponentially growing companies like spacex, his stake is 42 percent, majoritily owned by him, in Tesla, he owns 23 percent and is also the biggest stakeholder, with over 411 million shares and in Twitter where he owns 9.6 percent. He is currently in battle for the top spot with bernard arnault, owner of LVMH, In april of 2023 he had overtook Musk, but dropped down in the next month back to the second position. I will end this with the final statement that the last change according to bloomberg, was a 129 million dollar increase in Musk's net worth, and 2 billion dollar decrease in bernard's.

Musky in the lead right now by $5B, which probably doesn't incorporate the recent $10B valuation increase in SpaceX (47% owned my Musky). Should be over 50% anyway.

predicted NO

Based on which source will you resolve? The Forbes list?

@na_pewno yeah I'll default to that if there's ambiguity

Elon running a poll to vote him out of being Twitter ceo, sparking an orgy of hate and exhausting all of his critics, while no one has remotely complained about him since, was the greatest organizational politics move of the century (why is no one taking about this?)

Gigantic Girardian sacrifice to restore the peace, plus he didn’t actually give up power so now it’s both silly to complain and he basically proved normcel opinion doesn’t matter 🧠

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