Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in the last 100 years?
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in the last 100 years?
36
1kṀ12k
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. runs as an independent (or third party) and gets more of the popular vote than Ross Perot in 1992 (18.91%).

Based on Chamath's prediction in the latest All In podcast.

Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
United States
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
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9mo
9mo

Ross Perot did not get the highest vote share for an independent. He wasn't even number 1 in the 20th century.

10mo

Who did?

Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, 27.4%. There was also Horace Greeley, a dissident Republican endorsed by the Democrats in 1872, he got 43.8% but that questionably counts since it was the same two-party system in a way.

9mo

Not counting him but that's a cool fact

9mo

Why wouldn't you count him?

9mo

Wouldn't be fair to the people who bet already, since I mislead them in the description. I will change the title though.

9mo

Makes sense, thank you!

11mo
12mo
1y

Does "independent" mean "not with the Democratic Party or the Republican Party"? He's already created the "We The People Party," because some states let candidates onto the ballot with looser restrictions if they have a party.

1y

@ZaneMiller Yes third party counts too

1y

Slight arbitrage opportunity: https://manifold.markets/acouturi7/rfk-jr-will-win-at-least-20-of-the

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