Batteries are the major cost in EV prices.
However, the rate of improvement of battery costs over the last 11 years is a 90% improvement. If you take that 90% improvement from $50/kWh in 2025 over 11 years to 2036, it goes something like this:
2025: $50/kWh
2027: $38/kWh
2030: $25/kWh
2033: $12/kWh
2036: $5/kWh
In the end, if this pace of innovation in battery costs being reduced happens, the 200-mile range EV in 2030 would most likely have an around 40 kWh battery pack, be very lightweight, and get about 5 miles per kWh. That pack would cost around $1,000.
Just for fun, if you take 2036 to 2047, and if you use another 90% reduction, you get a cost per kWh in 2047 of around $0.50 or 50 cents. That makes a 200-mile range EV with a 40 kWh battery pack have a pack cost of $20. Seems absolutely insane when you think of it today.
This market outcome resolves true if the battery pack of 200-mile range EVs cost 1000 USD or less by Jan 1, 2030.
1,000