Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

1kṀ12k

2030

16%

chance

ALL

Batteries are the major cost in EV prices.

However, the rate of improvement of battery costs over the last 11 years is a 90% improvement. If you take that 90% improvement from $50/kWh in 2025 over 11 years to 2036, it goes something like this:

2025: $50/kWh

2027: $38/kWh

2030: $25/kWh

2033: $12/kWh

2036: $5/kWh

In the end, if this pace of innovation in battery costs being reduced happens, the 200-mile range EV in 2030 would most likely have an around 40 kWh battery pack, be very lightweight, and get about 5 miles per kWh. That pack would cost around $1,000.

Just for fun, if you take 2036 to 2047, and if you use another 90% reduction, you get a cost per kWh in 2047 of around $0.50 or 50 cents. That makes a 200-mile range EV with a 40 kWh battery pack have a pack cost of $20. Seems absolutely insane when you think of it today.

Source

This market outcome resolves true if the battery pack of 200-mile range EVs cost 1000 USD or less by Jan 1, 2030.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Over 200 km range EV that sells for 7500$

https://youtu.be/mCXTI-tvxWI?si=XsasyFpfyT5hyYyT

This is insane. I'm wondering what the odds are that we'll get a $1k EV by 2030

Figo boughtṀ50YES

@figo Ayaa! You pushed the percentage higher... I thought I could keep buying low cost shares forever here 😔

bought Ṁ50 YES

If the price is below $25 but all manufacturers decide to pack bigger batteries than 40kwh, which pushes pack prices above $1000, does it still resolve YES?

bought Ṁ30 YES

@figo mmm.. i don't know.. which one would be more fair to reflect the purpose of this market? I think I'll create a poll asking this question and resolve according to the poll outcome.

@SimoneRomeo yes it was very cheap, except if the market shifts to 400mile range as the standard in which case $1000 may be hard to sustain. I still believe there will be a market for below 10k cars (hello Seagull), in which case $1k/200miles should remain a good trade-off.

@figo yes, I find it hard to believe that a Chinese company won't decide to make cheaper batteries.

Gosh, just made this market two months ago and we are already almost 1 year ahead of schedule

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/26/catl-byd-to-slash-battery-prices-by-50-in-2024-boom-evs-win/

@SimoneRomeo also this is an interesting take

https://youtu.be/tZ2HZ1xcgxI?si=txle29wc4Box3yiC

What source are you using to verify the cost per kwh of a finished battery pack?

@ElliotDavies Not sure right now. Do you have suggestions? Is there anything you are concerned about specifically?

predictedNO

@SimoneRomeo I'm just worried: 1) There won't be consensus (2) This market isn't super clear if it's Cell Kw/h vs finished battery cell per Kw/h

Weight and cost won’t come down in unison as that article seems to imply. Batteries are still far too heavy and any advancement to make them lighter will come at a higher cost initially.