Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Question

On Feb. 7, 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social: BALANCED BUDGET!!! DJT.

Will he balance the budget before his term ends?

Resolves on news reports from at least one of:

• ABC

• CBS

• NBC

• PBS

• NPR

• CNN

• Fox

• MSNBC

• Associated Press

• New York Times

• Washington Examiner

• Wall Street Journal

• New York Post

• USA Today

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (74 traders, as of Jan 2, 2026).