Will the independent run of RFK Jr hurt Democrats more than Republicans?
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Plus
256
Ṁ31k
resolved Sep 11
Resolved
N/A

Around the time of the election, I will attempt to look at polls in the last month which both include and exclude him. If the D minus R margin is better in polls without RFK, this will resolve YES. If it is better in polls with RFK, this will resolve NO. In the event that it is genuinely too close to call (say, margin changes <0.3%) or too low of a sample (say, <5 polls) this will resolve N/A.

If he doesn't run as independent or doesn't last the entire race, also resolves N/A.

In the event of significant controversy regarding any of these conditions, I will contact whatever trustworthy-ish users I can and resolve according to their recommendations.

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Early resolution. Perot dropped out and then came back.

@MaybeNotDepends that would be fucking wild.

@SemioticRivalry Resolves N/A, he dropped out completely

@Bayesian Boooo he can still hurt/has hurt either side

Will this resolve N/A? @SemioticRivalry

RFK will still be in the ballot in most states, including some swing states where it's too late for him to drop out. I think we should wait until November to see what happens.

Most likely he'll have too few votes to matter in the swing states, but that's not guaranteed.

The issue is the resolution is based on polls and because RFK likely won't be polled anymore by October/November, this market becomes meaningless per the description.

Hmm, that's a good point. Maybe some polls might still include him though? I think it would still be interesting to see the comparison.

https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1821608329380245948

Joe Rogan announced he supports RFK Jr over Trump: “he is the only one that makes sense to me.”

Who would be the hungry caterpillar in this photo?

Two questions whether this market is the same as Insight Prediction:

  1. Are you using RealClearPolitics or what polls?

  2. How are polls that consider Biden, Trump, RFK Jr, and other candidates considered?

Polls that include West, Stein, and potentially a libertarian candidate will likely have Biden lower.

@CharlieBauer I planned on using this polling average but I didn't want to make any hard commitments because e.g. candidates drop out, urls change, etc

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

bought Ṁ200 YES

@SemioticRivalry I agree that makes the most sense. It is different from a three-way poll, but that’s unlikely to be polled. And it’s most likely that the libertarian party will announce a candidate and they will be included in RCP as well.

bought Ṁ50 YES

FYI, we have a real money market here, w/ slightly different rules (no <0.3% rule). https://insightprediction.com/m/243612/will-rfk-jr-harm-democrats

@DouglasCampbell slightly different rules, vastly different odds.

bought Ṁ100 YES
sold Ṁ240 YES

I'm not super happy with the N/A conditions on this market. i would like to remove it and resolve the question to No or Yes regardless of how small the margin or number of polls are. If anyone has any good reasons why I shouldn't do this, please reply and I'll consider them.

@SemioticRivalry A good reason is that it's been traded for months by over a hundred people with that condition in place. But maybe you could resolve 50-50 if the too-close-to-call outcome happens, if nobody who has traded already objects to changing it to that.

50/50 is worse

@SemioticRivalry We might get actual data of second choice preferences from Maine ranked choice voting.

opened a Ṁ3,000 YES at 45% order

@SemioticRivalry I think N/A is better, it would be a mess if this winds up hinging on something like whether specific polls are high quality enough to include.

predicted YES

Another poll showing Kennedy takes more from Biden than Trump,

Biden lags behind Trump by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%, on a hypothetical ballot with only those two candidates. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points, 37% to 31%, when five potential third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix. They take a combined 17% support, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drawing the most, at 8%.

-WSJ

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