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MANIFOLD
Will Astra release today?
12
Ṁ15kṀ190k
resolved Sep 4
Resolved as
80%

i really want to know

eastern time

  • Update 2026-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they will resolve the market to 80% due to an unanticipated edge case.

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I think it really was a botched release. But the more evidence that's appearing, the less clear what the "original plan" was

Seems like it was in fact released to the public on Azure the same day, fwiw

i think it's extremely arguable either way bc i failed to anticipate an edge case and specify 😭 but the thing i was trying to capture in this market was largely, but not entirely satisfied, so i'm going to resolve to 80%

@SemioticRivalry RIP but I understand

@SemioticRivalry i think resolving at n/a would probably fit this best

@SemioticRivalry what exactly is the criteria for bineg "released"?

"Starting" to release today according to Tibo

@xjp it's not released though

I think unexpected things have happened with this release

@0xseraphim It's apparently being released to "a limited set of organizations" first. But according to media reporting, today is the official release day.

@xjp yeah I think they went to plan B because of the outage that happened at the same time. Some variant of that is probably true

@xjp based on twitter it looks like OpenAI employees were expecting a general release today

@0xseraphim Seems to me it was delayed an hour or two but otherwise went as planned. The final OpenAI news article matches the details of the press releases in Axios and others.