Dems lead by 3 in the generic ballot

Dem coalition seems quite optimized for midterm turnout

Off party's advantage tends to increase as the midterm election draws nearer

Ohio shifted left in 2024 relative to the country

The Republican incumbent for this seat was nominated and not elected; these candidates often underperform

Sherrod Brown is running again and is effectively a Dem incumbent

Brown only lost by 3.5% in 2024, an R+2 year (although Moreno was a worse opponent than Husted)

I think Dems are more likely to win this seat than they are to win Maine. I have placed a limit order at 40%.