Will I be able to open TikTok.com from a computer located in the US on January 1st, 2026?

Question

On January 1st, 2026 I will browse to TikTok.com on my home computer located in Washington state. I will not be using a VPN or any other technical measures for evading website bans. I will use the default DNS server of my local internet provider. If my home internet is down for some reason I will use my phone hotspot or go use Wifi at a local cafe.

This question will resolve to YES if:

I successfully navigate to the website. If for some reason TikTok happens to be down for technical reasons on that particular day, I will keep trying again for the next 48 hours.

The website I see has TikTok-like content (short videos or images), roughly similar to the content currently hosted there today. It's acceptable for me to need to click through some sort of a warning screen before I can get to the TikTok content - i.e. a warning from ByteDance about how the website is banned in the US will count for a YES resolution as long as I can get to TikTok's actual content reasonably quickly.

It's OK if I'm automatically redirected to an alternative domain, as long as it still has TikTok-like content. For example if TikTok rebrands to "Y.com" for whatever reason, this will still count as a YES.

It doesn't matter who the owner of the website is. If TikTok.com is sold off to Facebook but I can still access TikTok-like content there, this will still count as a YES.

It will resolve to NO if:

The website is entirely inaccessible.

The website is accessible but no longer has TikTok-like content - for example, there's instead a notice from the government about the website being banned and I'm unable to watch TikTok-like content on TikTok.com as a result.

This question will never resolve to N/A. I reserve the right to bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jan 2, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.