Question resolves positive if a model is capable of generating arbitrary videos of reasonable quality from text prompts and demonstrates "object permanency" in the sense that it can resolve full object oclusions correctly(for example a mountain being temporarily hidden by a low cloud should still be there after the cloud moves) most of the time. If it's unclear whether some existing model has the capabilities by the deadline I'll use my judgment to decide how to resolve the market, and will lean towards yes in cases where the model mostly does it correctly for simple videos but fails at cherrypicked edge cases.
1,000
3.00@SirSalty, my small YES position at 12% was mainly based on seeker's particular views, e.g., the recent comment, "Man SORA is great looking from the promo videos but I really cant say anything until there's actual videos which seems unlikely to be released soon. Let's see where this goes", but I don't think Manifold has a decent system yet to account for the particularities of absent market creators when mods/admins resolve, and I think the NO case is quite strong without considering those. So I have no objection—thanks for getting to this!
Does the model have to be publicly available? AFAICT Sora maybe qualifies, but it's "competitors" which are actually available (e.g. Vidu) do not.
@TiredCliche I think market prices like these follow hype in part because the resolution criteria are so subjective. I think a lot of Manifold users, if they had created this market, would resolve YES based on Sora. There is some evidence that @Seeker is a more AI-skeptical user, but probably not many people are checking that closely, and it's not that clear. Personally, I'm also just trying to have less of my funds invested in these very subjective markets—at least with relatively inactive creators.
@Jacy idk every video from sora I've seen has obvious uncanny valley effects.
I'm super biased though because I don't think ai understands anything
@Magnus_ This market primarily refers to object permanence, and it's hard to make the case that Sora has this yet. For example, look at the man in the tan shirt disappear as he passes behind the person in blue. https://cdn.openai.com/sora/videos/chair-archaeology.mp4
@Jacy Also Sora isn't "released", it has only been "announced"/"demoed". There are good arguments by people much more knowledgeable than I which claim that Sora will never see a public release.
@Pykess Well the title of the question was “published” and it has been published.
Let’s see what will come out of it.
Personally I think projects like LTX studio is as good and is publicly available: