On august 23, the ZSU (Armed forces of Ukraine) retook the town of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reaching the first of the so-called Surovikin lines.
On august 30, reports came that units of the 82nd Air Assault Brigade were beyong the first line just west of the town of Verbove.
This question aims to probe whether the ZSU manages to expand its breach of the Surovikin line. The town of Verbove will be considered liberated if the Verbove high school is held by the ZSU for at least 24 hours before the end of the time period. If it is seized right before the deadline (so short raid do not count), I'll wait to see if they hold it for at least 24 hours.
As usual, I will not be betting on my own questions.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,012 | |
| 2 | Ṁ264 | |
| 3 | Ṁ239 | |
| 4 | Ṁ196 | |
| 5 | Ṁ183 |
https://deepstatemap.live shows Verbove under Russian control. There also were no news about Ukraine taking the town. So it eems like this should be resolved NO.
From (what I believe is) the Ukrainian 46th Brigades telegram channel today at ~09:00 CEST:
"Good morning, relatives!
(...)
⚔️Verbove direction. There was an attempt to get stuck further north and north-west. Height control in these directions can strengthen the position of our units in the area of the settlement. The same state of affairs to the south-west of Verbovoy. For now, both are on hold.
🔺After a short break, enemy aircraft continued their work on our positions. Mainly along the line of battle - the Robotine - Orikhov - Mala Tokmachka triangle.
🔺The constant work of artillery and drones is going on. Our guys work wonders - they regularly destroy Ork vehicles and infantry.
🔺The information about the importance of the field road between Novoprokopivka and Verbov and its possible "cutting" has been overestimated by "experts". It does not affect the transfer of operational reserves by the enemy.
🔺The occupiers continue to throw people and equipment in our direction. With such a saturation of battle formations with infantry and the absence of a numerical advantage on either side, it is hardly possible to expect a sharp change in the situation in someone's favor in the near future.
We are working. Yours. 46-a.🫡🫡🫡"
https://t.me/odshbr46/1312
Google translate did the translation.
Looks fairly perilous for my YES bet. With only 10 days to go, I'm considering selling out. Will give it a couple of days.
@42irrationalist I follow a number of OSINT account on twitter. If you have a definitive source to suggest I'm open to suggestion, but if it's disputed I'm not sure choosing a specific source is better to see if one channel or another post video of either side occupying the school rather than limit myself to specific sources.
@SebastianWorms most of these "OSINT" accounts on twitter are heavily biased and they frequently post inaccurate information. I would say that a good method to utilize would be first to see if such a claim has been made as to the area (in this market's case, the high school in particular) has fallen into the hands of the Ukrainian forces, and if this is being claimed, then to next determine if this has been contested by any Russian channels/sources/telegram channels - if so, see what conflicting evidence they may have to support their allegations - if not, then see what evidence has been posted by the Ukrainian forces (videos, etc.).
Relying on such "OSINT" accounts or some of these various "analyst" type people or even the people who run a lot of these websites which purport to be unbiased and just a relay for information be quite risky, it's nearly impossible to find such sources that are able to remain objectively unbiased, for pretty obvious reasons.
@dieselbaby1337 Well they do post a lot of evidence. I assume it'll most likely be clear one way or another, if it's disputed and there are no video evidence I'll N/A it.
@SebastianWorms I would propose using one of the available maps online. I use deepstate.live when doing my predictions — it's updated regularly and without much delay. It also has historical front line information that you can rewind back and forth.
@42irrationalist Not sure I'd trust it in case where it's really in doubt. If Verbove is contested and the frontline is somewhere in the city, I4ll go looking for geolocated videos
@SebastianWorms There might not be a video available until after a few days after it gets taken (which anyway helps me being on the NO side).
There is also a map by ISW, which has different shading for areas confirmed based on geolocated footage: https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap
One one hand, it might be what you want. On the other hand, the map used to be known to lag several days (up to a week) behind the actual situation. Not sure how fast it updates now and what the situation is with the geolocated footage.
@42irrationalist I think you mean https://deepstatemap.live/ -- deepstate.live is some sort
of bizarre site :)
Related longer term-market aiming to see if Ukraine will cross the Surovikin lines.
https://manifold.markets/SebastianWorms/50m-subsidy-will-ukraine-retake-tok?r=U2ViYXN0aWFuV29ybXM
