Who will launch a real-money conditional market first: Polymarket or Kalshi?
Oct 1
M$164 bet
SebastianDeri
Neither
75%
SebastianDeri
Polymarket
5%
SebastianDeri
Kalshi
5%
Add your answer
SebastianDeri
Neither
horse
horse bought M$10
I expect that conditional markets would have lower participation than non-conditional markets due to their additional complexity and the chance for your money to do nothing. Maybe if there was collateral return for buying in mutually exclusive conditional markets? But that's further complexity.
0
SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri is betting
Neither
@horse yup agree. but the Q (to me) is whether participant/liquidity would be so low as to be useless as to make it non-functional or just smaller and still useful. also -- someone just needs to do it/try it already!
0
SebastianDeri
Polymarket
SebastianDeri
Kalshi

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General Comments
Austin
I'm a bit confused by "Neither" here -- is this "Neither by the close date of Sept 30"?
0
SebastianDeri
@Austin Yes, sorry if that was unclear. Added a clarification in the market description.
0

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