Who will launch a real-money conditional market first: Polymarket or Kalshi?
SebastianDeriSebastian Deri
Oct 1
M$164 bet
SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri answered
Neither
75%
SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri answered
Polymarket
5%
SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri answered
Kalshi
5%
Add your answer
SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri answered
a month ago
Neither
horse
horse bought M$10
a month ago
I expect that conditional markets would have lower participation than non-conditional markets due to their additional complexity and the chance for your money to do nothing. Maybe if there was collateral return for buying in mutually exclusive conditional markets? But that's further complexity.
0
SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri is betting
Neither
a month ago
@horse yup agree. but the Q (to me) is whether participant/liquidity would be so low as to be useless as to make it non-functional or just smaller and still useful. also -- someone just needs to do it/try it already!
0
SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri answered
a month ago
Polymarket
SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri answered
a month ago
Kalshi

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General Comments
Austin
Austin
a month ago
I'm a bit confused by "Neither" here -- is this "Neither by the close date of Sept 30"?
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SebastianDeri
Sebastian Deri
a month ago
@Austin Yes, sorry if that was unclear. Added a clarification in the market description.
0

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