Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?
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Dec 31
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Conditional markets are useful to guide decision making.

Resolves YES when Kalshi or Polymarket provide at least one conditional market people trade on.

Resolves NO in 2025.

By "conditional market", I mean something like Metaculus provides:

It needs to be somehow mechanically different to the multiple choice markets, they already provide.

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All sorts of existing markets are conditional markets. They tend to be conditional on the event happening and have a rule for if the event doesn't happen.

predicts NO

@MaybeNotDepends I want to be liberal about it, but this is not what people mean when talking about "conditional markets". Added some more description.