Will Kalshi or Polymarket launch a conditional market in 2024?

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resolved Jan 2

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Conditional markets are useful to guide decision making.

Resolves YES when Kalshi or Polymarket provide at least one conditional market people trade on.

Resolves NO in 2025.

By "conditional market", I mean something like Metaculus provides:

It needs to be somehow mechanically different to the multiple choice markets, they already provide.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I'm not aware of any support, so it should be a NO.

What was that spike end of September about though? Seems I missed that.

@marktwse I think there was a market with "if" in the title, but the description of that market made it clear it wasn't really conditional. But I don't remember more about it.

All sorts of existing markets are conditional markets. They tend to be conditional on the event happening and have a rule for if the event doesn't happen.

predictedNO

@MaybeNotDepends I want to be liberal about it, but this is not what people mean when talking about "conditional markets". Added some more description.

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