Will any of my markets get me a cease-and-desist or legal threat by 2030?
6
44
แน€170
2029
11%
chance

I made a bunch of scandal markets about various people. I plan to make lots more. But it's possible one of them tries to make me take it down, with a legal threat. Many of them are rich, and could lash out if they wanted to.

Resolves Yes if any of my Manifold markets result in being sent a legal threat, or a cease-and-desist.

It must seem reasonably credible. Arguably it should have either been sent by the person mentioned in a scandal market, or by their lawyer. It should probably be written in a way that seems compatible with communications being admissible to court (as opposed to "imma sue yo ass" or obvious trolling).

It doesn't count if they only ask me to take down the market -- they must legally threaten me over the market.

Any medium of contact can count, DMs, etc.

Get แน€200 play money
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predicts NO

Great idea for a market! I've gone ahead and made one for me as well.