@MichaelTrazzi tweeted on 2022-Dec-04:

enjoy the last few quiet months of your life before humanity starts interfacing with alien gods and shit goes really crazy

Let's push "the last few quiet months" out to include the first 7 months of 2023.

In August of 2023, I will DM Michaël Trazzi on Twitter and ask them if what they see counts as "humanity has started interfacing with alien gods and shit has gone really crazy". If we both agree about whether this "happened", then I'll resolve the market that way.

But if we disagree about whether the event "happened", I'll convert this market into a Keynesian Beauty Contest. I would wait for the price to stabilize, either spending 5+ days at <=5% (resolves "No"), OR spending 5+ days at >=95% (resolves "Yes"). This method will only be used if me and Michaël Trazzi don't agree on whether the event "happened", just as a way to deal with the high ambiguity.

EDIT: Isaac King asks "What if they don't respond or give you an unclear answer?"

If they don't respond or give an unclear answer, then I'll convert it to the KBC.

This is an open "bet" and I will be placing trades.

Update Aug-3rd:
@MichaelTrazzi gave a very thoughtful followup, and has changed his mind, no longer endorsing the wording (for what we currently see). This means we now agree, and this can resolve NO.

Update Aug-2nd:
Since we disagree, we now re-open this question, and begin the rolling 5-day Keynesian Beauty Contest, starting now. Either spending 5+ days at <=5% (resolves "No"), OR spending 5+ days at >=95% (resolves "Yes"), with no particular time limit for this process to reach its conclusion. I will be betting, and describe my reasoning for "No" in this comment.

Update Jul-31st:
Will give Michael time to reply, and if they disagree then we could re-open and then begin the 5+ day rolling countdown. YES seems currently hard to justify, but I want to give a fair chance.