Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be White?
37
435
546
Dec 16
91%
chance
The United States elected it's first non white president in 2008 with Barack Obama. Will the United States do it again in 2024 Mar 17, 12:28am: Just so we are clear this also includes White Hispanic/Latinos Mar 17, 3:47pm: Whatever race the victor self-identifies as is what is used for the purpose of this market.
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is orange a shade of white?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Does Nikki Haley count as nonwhite?

@ShakedKoplewitz actually even if she does, we're currently at 6% on her to be the nominee and 10% for Harris. If we assume each of them has 50% to win a GE, that's about 8% overall. I guess you could make up the gap with a dark horse candidate?

bought Ṁ5 of YES
So for the purposes of this market, half white = not white? What % qualifies someone as 'white'?
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Not used to this new system where you can't sell shares directly!
bought Ṁ50 of YES
For starters, Biden and Trump are the frontrunners, and both are.

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