Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the individual elected as the next pope is publicly known to be gay or have had publicly disclosed same sex relations. The determination will be based on credible public sources confirming the pope's sexual orientation. If no such public confirmation exists within 2 months, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

The Catholic Church has traditionally maintained conservative positions regarding homosexuality. However, in recent years, there have been notable shifts:

• Pope Francis' Stance: In 2013, Pope Francis stated, "If a person is gay and seeks God and has good will, who am I to judge?" indicating a more compassionate approach toward individuals with same-sex attraction. (theguardian.com)

• Same-Sex Civil Unions: In 2020, Pope Francis endorsed same-sex civil unions, emphasizing that homosexual people "have the right to be in a family" and advocating for legal protections through civil union laws. (apnews.com)

• Seminary Admissions: In 2025, the Vatican approved a document allowing gay men to become priests in Italy, provided they adhere to the Church's requirement of chastity. (religionnews.com)

Despite these developments, the election of a gay pope would represent an unprecedented event in the history of the Catholic Church. Currently, there is no public information regarding the sexual orientation of the cardinals considered potential candidates for the papacy. The Church's teachings and traditions have historically emphasized celibacy and have not publicly addressed the sexual orientations of its leaders.

Considerations:

• Confidentiality: The personal lives and sexual orientations of cardinals are typically private matters, and such information is rarely disclosed publicly.

• Historical Precedent: There has never been a publicly known gay pope in the history of the Catholic Church.

• Church Doctrine: While there have been recent shifts toward inclusivity, the Church's official teachings on homosexuality remain conservative, which may influence the selection of future popes.

Given these factors, traders should consider the rarity of public disclosures regarding the personal lives of high-ranking Church officials and the historical context when making their predictions.