Will classified documents be found inappropriately stored by G. W. Bush (this year)? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

Will classified documents be found inappropriately stored by G. W. Bush (this year)?

26%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

First Trump, then Biden, now Pence! Is it Bush II's turn next?

Resolves NO at the end of the year if nothing's happened by then.

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Shaked Koplewitzbought Ṁ300 of NO

As hilarious as this would be, I'm betting no.
(Also, what bout Obama? Seems unfair to leave him out here)

Jackbought Ṁ20 of YES

"National Archives asks former presidents and vice presidents to check for classified and presidential documents"

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/26/politics/archives-letter-former-presidents-vice-presidents-classified-documents/index.html

I think only people running for office have anything to worry about.

@BTE huh? Is pence running?

Jackis predicting YES at 38%

@ScottLawrence Quite possibly!

@ScottLawrence He voluntarily turned them over. And yes I think he is.

@ScottLawrence Totally understood. But why even look?

@BTE To be clear, this market will resolve yes if Bush voluntarily turns them over, as well.

Boklamis predicting NO at 38%

@BTE So much confidence, so few bets!

BTE sold Ṁ39 NO from 24% to 26%

Jack bought Ṁ60 NO from 28% to 24%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 28% (cancelled)

Moshe Levy bought Ṁ25 YES from 24% to 29%

Jonas Kamper bought Ṁ10 NO from 25% to 24%

Forrest Taylor bought Ṁ10 YES from 23% to 25%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ100 NO at 23% (cancelled)

jcb bought Ṁ20 YES from 20% to 25%

NLeseul bought Ṁ10 NO from 21% to 20%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 33%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 50%

Jotto 999 created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 67%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ17 YES at 21% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 18% (cancelled)

Shaked Koplewitz bought Ṁ300 NO from 46% to 16%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ20 NO from 50% to 46%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 50% (cancelled)

PossumsRus sold Ṁ2 YES at 49%

PossumsRus sold Ṁ15 YES from 53% to 49%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 YES at 53% (cancelled)

Super Tax Genius sold Ṁ32 YES from 59% to 52%

Jf P bought Ṁ10 YES from 57% to 59%

Jack bought Ṁ20 YES from 52% to 57%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 YES at 52% (cancelled)

Adrià Garriga-Alonso sold Ṁ34 YES from 56% to 47%

Jack bought Ṁ50 YES from 43% to 56%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 43% (cancelled)

Adrià Garriga-Alonso filled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ27 YES at 45%

Blaise bought Ṁ10 YES from 32% to 36%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 NO at 32% (cancelled)

Super Tax Genius bought Ṁ10 YES from 29% to 33%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 29% (cancelled)

PossumsRus bought Ṁ10 YES from 27% to 31%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 NO at 27% (cancelled)

Jack bought Ṁ20 NO from 32% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ100 YES at 32% (cancelled)

BTE bought Ṁ25 NO from 35% to 29%

BTE bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 35%

OperationIvy85 bought Ṁ10 NO from 44% to 38%

Super Tax Genius bought Ṁ10 YES from 33% to 44%

Boklam bought Ṁ20 NO from 48% to 33%

Boklam bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 48%

Jack bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59%