Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024?
46%
chance
Sort by:
Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
sold Ṁ216 of YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/mike-pence-classified-documents.html

Aides to former Vice President Mike Pence found a small number of documents with classified markings at his home in Indiana during a search last week, according to an adviser to Mr. Pence.
...
Mr. Jacob, who was Mr. Pence’s general counsel while he was vice president, stressed cooperation in the letter to the National Archives.

Sounds like it will be handled more like Biden's classified documents than Trump's, since Pence is intending to cooperate with the National Archives.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
is predicting YES at 57%
rockenots avatar
rockenots
bought Ṁ7 of NO

From Reuters:
Dec 26 - Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has not filed to run for president in 2024, his adviser Devin O'Malley said on Twitter following a report on Monday by Britain's Sky News that Pence had filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mike-pence-run-us-president-2024-sky-news-2022-12-26/

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
bought Ṁ106 of YES

@rockenots You seem very convinced by this statement, and not by his actual filing. Is that a common thing? Do politicians sometimes file and then not run?

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
bought Ṁ150 of YES

@rockenots Just read that the spokesperson says it was a different person who filed, which makes more sense

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle
bought Ṁ200 of YES
NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
is predicting NO at 94%

@Gabrielle Oh wow! Not quite, he has to announce a run, but that looks super likely now

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
is predicting YES at 49%

@Gabrielle And it's a good thing I included that requirement, because it doesn't look like it was actually Pence that filed.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
is predicting NO at 54%

"Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024?"

Will Mike Pence run for President in 2024?
NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Young
is predicting NO at 61%
Participation in the primary definitely counts - he just needs to run some kind of official campaign. I'll resolve YES if he makes a campaign launch speech. Resolving NO is tricky since replacement candidates exist, so if he doesn't run I'll probably resolve around the day of the election.
Nico avatar
What are the conditions? Does participation in the primary count?
BruceGrugett avatar
BCG
bought Ṁ20 of YES
I suppose he will run, but I hope he doesn't do well