@rockenots Good point! I resolved this market when I did because I meant the 2024 election cycle rather than the year 2024, but I acknowledge that I should have worded it more along those lines.

predicted YES

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/05/mike-pence-launches-2024-presidential-campaign.html

Mike Pence files paperwork to launch 2024 Republican presidential campaign

Pence served as a U.S. House member and governor of Indiana before becoming Trump’s running mate and eventual vice president.

predicted YES

@NcyRocks

bought Ṁ500 of YES

“Mike Pence plans to launch his 2024 bid for the White House next Wednesday, a source familiar with the plans confirmed to Semafor.“ https://twitter.com/semafor/status/1663992422970302465

predicted NO

bought Ṁ2 of YES

How are you defining “running?” Announcement? Statement of candidacy? Holds a rally?

predicted YES

@KevinBurke An announcement would be ideal, a statement of candidacy would suffice, he doesn’t have to hold a rally.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

"Former Vice President Mike Pence is expected to soon declare a long-shot 2024 run for the White House, pitching himself as a “classical conservative” who would return the Republican Party to its pre-Trump roots, according to people close to Pence."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/15/us/politics/pence-2024-preparations.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes

predicted NO

bought Ṁ90 of NO

sold Ṁ216 of YES

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/mike-pence-classified-documents.html

Aides to former Vice President Mike Pence found a small number of documents with classified markings at his home in Indiana during a search last week, according to an adviser to Mr. Pence.
...
Mr. Jacob, who was Mr. Pence’s general counsel while he was vice president, stressed cooperation in the letter to the National Archives.

Sounds like it will be handled more like Biden's classified documents than Trump's, since Pence is intending to cooperate with the National Archives.

predicted YES

bought Ṁ7 of NO

From Reuters:
Dec 26 - Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has not filed to run for president in 2024, his adviser Devin O'Malley said on Twitter following a report on Monday by Britain's Sky News that Pence had filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mike-pence-run-us-president-2024-sky-news-2022-12-26/

bought Ṁ106 of YES

@rockenots You seem very convinced by this statement, and not by his actual filing. Is that a common thing? Do politicians sometimes file and then not run?

bought Ṁ150 of YES

@rockenots Just read that the spokesperson says it was a different person who filed, which makes more sense

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@NcyRocks

https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/P40010233/1673381

He’s filed to run, is that sufficient?

predicted NO

@Gabrielle Oh wow! Not quite, he has to announce a run, but that looks super likely now

predicted YES

@Gabrielle And it's a good thing I included that requirement, because it doesn't look like it was actually Pence that filed.