Military application of BSM physics by 2050?
Military application of BSM physics by 2050?
4
130Ṁ502050
36%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@ian Possible is sufficient, as long as it's affecting behavior in some meaningful way. For instance if multiple countries stopped investing in submarines because they're too vulnerable to some BSM-based attack, then that would count even if nobody had bothered to demonstrate the attack.
Weirdly, I don't think this market will end up having an ambiguous resolution. Militarily relevant things have a way of being built as soon as it becomes clear that they're possible!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Military applications of neutrinos by 2050?
13% chance
Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?
47% chance
Will there be space wars by 2050
34% chance
Major physics discovery thanks to AI by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will SBF be released by the start of 2045?
69% chance
WW3: by 2050
32% chance
Dyson sphere/swarm before 2050?
12% chance
Will FM-2030 be alive in 2030?
4% chance
Will gravity still exist after making these new technologies after 2025?
93% chance
Will a military skirmish with at least one casualty take place outside of Earth's atmosphere before 2050?
24% chance