Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the I am conscripted into the British military against my will (meaning, I don’t have a choice, not whether I’d like to go) by December 31, 2029.

Resolution requires official conscription legislation to be enacted, and that I receive a letter (or other notification, but if they’re sending me to war I’d at least like a letter) that I am to be called up for military service under that legislation. The market resolves NO if no such conscription occurs by the deadline, or if conscription is introduced but I am not called up (e.g., due to medical exemption, age exemption, or other legal exemption).

I am 24 years old, male, and have no medical conditions at present. The duration, or frequency of attendance of any conscription doesn’t matter for the resolution.

Background

There is currently no conscription or requirement for military service in the United Kingdom; the British armed forces are a professional volunteer force. Successive governments have, since the 1960s, ruled out reintroducing national service for the armed forces, arguing that a highly trained, professional armed forces staffed by volunteers is the best way to provide for the defence of the United Kingdom. The current government has said it has no plans to introduce conscription to the armed forces.

However, the Chief of the Defence Staff said there are currently no plans for conscription, but declined to rule it out longer term. Reintroduction of mandatory national service was part of the Conservative Party manifesto for the 2024 general election, despite Conservative defence minister Andrew Murrison stating that the government favoured a volunteer professional military and national service would have a negative effect on morale. The Labour government, which won the 2024 election, has not proposed conscription.

Considerations

Section 23(3) of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 precludes the government from using that act to make emergency regulations that would require a person to provide military service. This means conscription would require new primary legislation to be passed by Parliament. A YouGov survey found that 38% of under-40s say they would refuse to serve in the armed forces in the event of a new world war, and 30% say they would not serve even if Britain was facing imminent invasion.