Military applications of neutrinos by 2050?

Question

Will the neutrino fields find a military use by 2050? In order to count the technology must directly use neutrinos (what I mean is described more carefully below). The technology must clearly be consequential from a military/security standpoint. It doesn't have to actually have been used, as long as the threat of its use is plausibly affecting behavior.

Because obviously this one could be ambiguous, I won't be betting in this market. Feel free to pose hypotheticals and request clarification.

No technology that is currently publicly known to be deployed by the military counts. Technology that is still "in the works" could count.

Vaguely conceivable things that would induce a YES resolution (not that I'm claiming any would work, just to demonstrate resolution criteria):

"Neutrino bomb". Not that it's a very good weapon, but with a high enough flux, yes, it'd count.

Neutrino-based remote sensing.

Using neutrinos to disrupt other military systems.

Things that will not count towards a YES resolution:

Misinformation about neutrinos. If in 10 years everybody's saying how big of a threat neutrino bombs are, and I'm confident that this is false, that won't count---even if the misinformation itself is having military consequences.

Things that can be described without the word "neutrino". If there's an effective field theory that doesn't mention neutrinos that adequately describes the weapon, then that doesn't count. This rule is tricky, and is meant to exclude things like "nuclear weapon but we modeled some process involving neutrinos slightly more accurately".

I'll try to resolve YES liberally.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (35 traders, as of Jun 1, 2026).