Inactive creator, modresolving NO.
Think this is in line with the creators intent re. resolution timing, since they said below:
If there's no news one year after the initial announcement, I'll review and resolve NO liberally.
It's been a year now and LK-99 isn't thought to be any kind of superconductor, room-temperature, high-temperature, or otherwise.
@MarcusAbramovitch because I'm not convinced I know the answer with sufficient certainty to resolve.
See also the resolution criteria. "This market resolves later than you'd like."
@ScottLawrence What do you want to see that would convince you to resolve it?
What's likely to happen is interest will (continue to) fade, and we won't hear much further. How long with no news will be sufficient?
@chrisjbillington If there's no news one year after the initial announcement, I'll review and resolve NO liberally.
Explanation of selling: I assumed this market should unconditionally trade higher than the main market, but thanks to @chrisjbillington's goading I double checked and realized this market resolves in 2024 while the main market resolves in 2025.
While my probability of LK-99 being RTAPSC is 20% and being HTS is higher (30%?), I don't think this will be settled in 2023. So I am selling out.
@anon I'm not the creator but yes, most definitely. "High-temperature" in this context is anything above 77 K, i.e. is extremely cold.
@anon Actually, I think more than half of yes's value may also be owned by a single individual, but the largest holder still holds a much larger percent in the case of no.
If it isn't a supraconductor at 270 K the paper is wrong. Since I doubt that LK-99 changed temperature by 200 K towards 0K during measurement, I asume the chances of it beeing a high temp superconductor, if the paper is wrong, is the same as for a random material, which is about 0. The claim may be weaker, the chances are in my opinion the same as for the main thing.
@Willi There is seperate preprint that claims to show 0 resitance at 110K. I believe that is what prompted the creation of this market.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192