Non-epistemic exit due to market resolution concerns.

@SanghyeonSeo What concerns?

resolve?

@MarcusAbramovitch Re-opened for now.

@ScottLawrence why?

@MarcusAbramovitch because I'm not convinced I know the answer with sufficient certainty to resolve.

See also the resolution criteria. "This market resolves later than you'd like."

@ScottLawrence What do you want to see that would convince you to resolve it?

What's likely to happen is interest will (continue to) fade, and we won't hear much further. How long with no news will be sufficient?

@chrisjbillington If there's no news one year after the initial announcement, I'll review and resolve NO liberally.

@ScottLawrence There has been news, what sort of news did you have in mind?

Investment thesis is that this should be the same as the 2025 market because if we find out that lk-99 is a superconductor in 2024 or later then this market will need to be re-resolved to YES.

Explanation of selling: I assumed this market should unconditionally trade higher than the main market, but thanks to @chrisjbillington's goading I double checked and realized this market resolves in 2024 while the main market resolves in 2025.

While my probability of LK-99 being RTAPSC is 20% and being HTS is higher (30%?), I don't think this will be settled in 2023. So I am selling out.

@SanghyeonSeo looks like the market will be extended until the question is conclusively answered.

@SanghyeonSeo

It's over, stop betting YES

@ScottLawrence Just to confirm my understanding of the resolution conditions, a room temperature superconductor also counts as a high-temperature superconductor?

@anon I'm not the creator but yes, most definitely. "High-temperature" in this context is anything above 77 K, i.e. is extremely cold.

@chrisjbillington Room temperature is famously above 77K, so yes, it counts as high-temperature :)

I think yes is heavily undervalued given as more than half of no's value is owned by a single individual.

@anon Actually, I think more than half of yes's value may also be owned by a single individual, but the largest holder still holds a much larger percent in the case of no.

If you think it's undervalued, please buy more! I've put in a M1000 NO limit order at 50%, so you can buy a decent amount at that low, low price. Limited time offer :)

Another 1000 at 60% if you're interested @MarcusAbramovitch

If it isn't a supraconductor at 270 K the paper is wrong. Since I doubt that LK-99 changed temperature by 200 K towards 0K during measurement, I asume the chances of it beeing a high temp superconductor, if the paper is wrong, is the same as for a random material, which is about 0. The claim may be weaker, the chances are in my opinion the same as for the main thing.

@Willi There is seperate preprint that claims to show 0 resitance at 110K. I believe that is what prompted the creation of this market.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192

Observation of zero resistance above 100$^\circ$ K in Pb$_{10-x}$Cu$_x$(PO$_4$)$_6$O

Room-temperature superconductivity has always been regarded as the ultimate goal in the fields of solid-state physics and materials science, with its realization holding revolutionary significance, capable of triggering significant changes in energy transmission and storage. However, achieving it po…

@TomBouley thanks, will ready it later

@TomBouley yeah, I saw that on HN and decided to create these two.