Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?
80
1kṀ7712
2027
5%
chance
This market resolves to YES if, by 5/9/2027, the federal government passes a law saying that abortion is banned in all 50 states. A law can qualify even if it carves out exceptions for certain subsets of women (eg those whose health are in danger). This market resolves to YES immediately after this happens, even if the law is later repealed or struck down.
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bought Ṁ5,000 NO

Trump disavowed the idea. Don't see any route for this to happen.

How low does the week limit need to be to make this resolve YES? Would a 15-week national ban do it, for example?

To put this to the extreme, would a national ban on sex-selective abortions qualify, if it left all other abortions untouched?

without loans it is pointless, sorry
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/will-there-be-a-federal-law-legaliz "Will there be a federal law legalizing abortion nationally in the next five years?" is a matching market
It won't happen, but it's far, far more likely than Roe v. Wade being codified into Federal law in five years.

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