Will my upcoming post "What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?" get more than 100 Substack likes?

Ṁ100Ṁ5.9k

resolved Mar 6

Resolved

YES

ALL

Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post discussing my thoughts on this tweet: https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1449411182931202062?s=20 . The post is about 3000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 101+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post).

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I really want to be contrarian, but 100 seems low

I'm just taking Scott's advice that these probabilities are too high. I support him writing this post!

This is more a bet on whether betters are going to manipulate the outcome. It would have been good to say "number of likes by members who joined before 2022-01-31", to get a genuine feel, and the result is still useful. But nevermind, horse has bolted!

I agree, I've never 'liked' a post even though I liked some of them. This time though, I'm motivated by greed.

The probability gets much higher than the baseline because everyone who bought "yes" here will like the post in order to win

I believe in Scott. Also, this would be a "real" post and so it should have more likes than things like the guest posts and grant posts.

Buying NO down to the base rate.

Of the 35 significant text posts (posts that aren't open threads, Highlights from the Comments on ___, guest posts, Mantic Mondays, ACX Grants, or link posts, and aren't subscriber only) that I see since September 1, 2021, 9 of them have had 100 or fewer likes. So the base rate for posts like this should be 74%.