Will my upcoming post "What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?" get more than 100 Substack likes?
42
42
resolved Mar 6
Resolved
YES
Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post discussing my thoughts on this tweet: https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1449411182931202062?s=20 . The post is about 3000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 101+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post).
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bought Ṁ1 of NO
I really want to be contrarian, but 100 seems low
bought Ṁ50 of NO
I'm just taking Scott's advice that these probabilities are too high. I support him writing this post!
bought Ṁ1 of YES
This is more a bet on whether betters are going to manipulate the outcome. It would have been good to say "number of likes by members who joined before 2022-01-31", to get a genuine feel, and the result is still useful. But nevermind, horse has bolted!
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I agree, I've never 'liked' a post even though I liked some of them. This time though, I'm motivated by greed.
bought Ṁ5 of YES
The probability gets much higher than the baseline because everyone who bought "yes" here will like the post in order to win
bought Ṁ100 of YES
I believe in Scott. Also, this would be a "real" post and so it should have more likes than things like the guest posts and grant posts.
bought Ṁ3 of NO
Buying NO down to the base rate.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Of the 35 significant text posts (posts that aren't open threads, Highlights from the Comments on ___, guest posts, Mantic Mondays, ACX Grants, or link posts, and aren't subscriber only) that I see since September 1, 2021, 9 of them have had 100 or fewer likes. So the base rate for posts like this should be 74%.