Will my upcoming post "What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?" get more than 100 Substack likes?
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Ṁ5.9Kresolved Mar 6
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Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post discussing my thoughts on this tweet: https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1449411182931202062?s=20 . The post is about 3000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 101+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post).
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Of the 35 significant text posts (posts that aren't open threads, Highlights from the Comments on ___, guest posts, Mantic Mondays, ACX Grants, or link posts, and aren't subscriber only) that I see since September 1, 2021, 9 of them have had 100 or fewer likes. So the base rate for posts like this should be 74%.
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