If I review Rick Perlstein's "Nixonland", will it get at least 125 likes?
Basic
48
Ṁ3425
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
N/A
This is a conditional prediction market intended to help me determine what books to review. It resolves as positive if I post a review of "Nixonland" on ACX and get at least 125 Substack likes within one week of posting. It resolves as negative if I post the review and get fewer than 125 likes. If I don't review this book within a year, it resolves N/A.
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predictedYES
This post on Nixon from 03/21 got 135 likes and reader numbers probably only went up from then. https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/richard-nixon-vs-cool?s=r Also the number of "yes" votes suggests up to 35 YES votes coming from bettors on this market.
predictedYES
Correction: 25 votes, I also counted people selling YES.
I expect that all this book markets are overinflated by people not actually estimating probabilities.
Buying NO based on Scott's latest post.
In it for a quick profit. Thanks peeps.
Personally, I think a Nixonland review would be interesting.

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