Will there be documented human-to-human transmission of H5N1 (bird flu) before 2026?
Plus
38
Ṁ47292026
89%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Potentially, but not yet confirmed: 8 contacts of an index case had symptoms
@SaviorofPlant yeah I know, and health authorities are doing a really bad job with the data (which greatly affects this market)
I just hope that the fatality rate AND morbidity rate (think long covid) would actually be really low
Please clarify the resolution criteria. Does this require sustained transmission? What's the closing date? Jan 1st 2026, Dec 31st 2026?
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be at least 10,000 worldwide cases of human infection by HPAI H5N1 before 2025?
4% chance
Will 10,000 people die of H5N1 before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? (100+ cases)
11% chance
Will 10,000 Americans die of H5N1 before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will there be an avian flu pandemic before 2026?
28% chance
Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?
26% chance
Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024?
24% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 globally before 2025?
19% chance
Will H5N1 have spread to multiple pig farms in 2024?
Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024?
19% chance